In this video Momochi posted to the Shinobism channel the day before Capcom Cup Finals Momochi analyzes his path to victory. Here are some notes from the video. I (still!) haven’t watched the last day of Capcom Cup pools (Day 3 – I just have two pools left) so I might not have all the context, but I think I know mostly what is going on.

His first opponent is Phenom, after that either NL or EndingWalker. Either one of those is possible. Momochi is basically prepared well for any character that showed up in the JP SFL (which does not include Ed – unless he prepped for Nemo’s Ed?), though he didn’t expect a Dictator, who appeared when Zhen won the LCQ. For example, he’s prepared for Akuma whom Takamura plays because of the chance that Tokido might play him. NL plays Luke, and he’s thoroughly prepared for Luke.

If he makes it past round two, he faces the loser of either Valmaster or Mr. Crimson and who that winner faced in the loser of MenaRD or Takamura. So one of those four, but Momochi thinks Valmaster might be who he faces. When Momochi won Capcom Cup and EVO, both times he faced and beat Valmaster, so Valmaster is his cupid. In fact, you could say that he went to Losers to chase after Valmaster if you are into conspiracy theories. He just hopes he doesn’t face Mr. Crimson. That’s who he least wants to face in the Top 16. He’s prepared for Dhalsim, but hasn’t prepared for it as much as other possibilities. He’s also not looking forward to facing 4Philz. He’s also not too excited about Phenom. Also, iDom. If iDom goes to loser’s he won’t run into him for a while.

He thinks the loser’s route isn’t too bad. He’s generally pretty positive though (he says of himself.) He tries to take everything in a positive light, and thinks loser’s might be a good match for him. Of course Winners is better, but sometimes based on the results you aren’t too unhappy when you’re in losers depending on who you would match up with. Of course nobody would choose to go to losers if they had the choice, but sometimes if you lose and up there you might think it’s good. Of course, it’s easier for him to lose though.

Everyone other than the winner in Grand Finals loses once and goes to the loser’s bracket. So it’s a question of what timing to do you fall into the Loser’s bracket. Of course, the sooner you fall in, the more matches you have to play by a factor of 2, so winner’s is better from that sense. There’s a mental difference between people coming from the bottom versus those that fell from the top. The people fighting from the bottom have to be stronger than those from the top. It’s all first to three from here on out. From that point of view if you have a higher win rate you can advance, so there isn’t as much of a difference from Winner’s and Loser’s.

What’s most concerned about is beating Dhalsim in a FT3. But he’s got Valmaster to support him, so it’s ok. (This is a dry kind of humor, I hope it comes across.) A commentor says “Getting out of pools was really tight!” Momochi says that from Top 16 it’s really about your own power to win.

He laughs a bit, if EndingWalker falls down to him and he loses, he would have lost to people in their teens twice. Actually, in Top 16 there are only 4 people over 30. Two people are in their teens, Zhen and EndingWalker. There’s about 10 people in their 20s. The rest are over 30. M. Lizard is 43. Then Momochi is like “Wait, hold up?” (ChocoBlanka laughs off screen.) “Am I the next oldest after M. Lizard?” He says that NL is one year younger than him, so he thanks M. Lizard. If it wasn’t for him, he’d be the oldest. (ChocoBlanka off screen: The OLDEST!) M. Lizard, sako, and GamerBee are all the same age. ChocoBlanka says that it’s a changing of the guard. (A generational change.) Momochi says that Gachi-kun and Pugera aren’t young, and aren’t old, they’re in the middle ranks. (Note: he didn’t say “middle aged”!) They aren’t young, and they aren’t veterans (in terms of age.) They are old for gamers, but for fighting game players don’t they still feel young? Ryusei and Mizuha still feel young (they are in their mid 20s) – for fighting games. Yamaguchi and Higuchi aren’t even young, they are still in Kindergarden for fighting game plaeyrs. Maybe the second year of middle school since they are 21. Punk and iDom are like 24, 25.